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BIA/Kelsey: Mobile Search Is Cannibalizing Desktop

Google and Bing are the beneficiaries, naturally, said Mark Fratrik, SVP and chief economist at BIA/Kelsey.But what happens as Alexa search rises?

The dominance of mobile and social is having a demonstrative impact on search, particularly at the local level, BIA/Kelsey’s latest local media marketplace forecast finds.

Local search on desktop devices will grow at a 5.7 percent CAGR. As more search activity takes place on mobile devices, mobile is cannibalizing search dollars from desktop.

As the use of Connected Intelligence via voice-activated assistants like Amazon’s Alexa, Okay Google, Apple’s Siri, Microsoft’s Cortana continue to make the move into the mainstream, local search is only going to undergo greater upheaval. The changes wrought by mobile versus desktop will be mirrored by the shift from screen to speaking.

That said, the full impact of voice is still just gathering.

At the present, BIA/Kelsey’s report finds trends of past years fully ingrained in marketers’ spending patterns, as online/digital is projected to grow at 13.5 percent, from $44.2 billion in 2016 to $50.2 billion in 2017.

In comparison, traditional print and broadcast will combine for a decrease of 2.4 percent, falling from $101.1 billion in 2016 to $98.6 billion in 2017.

Overall, total local ad dollars in the U.S. to reach $148.8 billion in 2017, up from $145.2 billion this year, representing a growth rate of 2.4 percent.

“A range of factors will drive local ad revenues higher in 2017 and through the end of the next year,” said Mark Fratrik, SVP and chief economist at BIA/Kelsey. “An improving U.S. economy, increased spending by national brands in local media channels, extraordinary growth in mobile and social advertising, and the continued expansion and selection of online/digital advertising platforms. In fact, we are predicting that online/digital local ad share will exceed the share of print media by 2018.”

Online/digital revenues are generated by online companies that sell locally targeted advertising that includes display, search and classified/vertical advertising. The advertisements are sold by local pure-play online companies, national online companies offering geo-targeted advertising, and local traditional media groups’ online/digital efforts.